INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

A First Foundation Blog

The Week Ahead – Cornucopia

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

With Thanksgiving coming up there is always much to be thankful for: family, friends, and health are a few that come to mind. Growing up I was always tasked with putting together a cornucopia as the center piece for Thanksgiving dinner. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines Cornucopia as: 

  1. A curved, hollow goat’s horn or similarly shaped receptacle that is overflowing with fruit and vegetables and that is used as a decorative motif emblematic of abundance – called also horn of plenty.
  2. An inexhaustible store
  3. A receptacle shaped as a horn or cone

The investment markets in 2017 so far have been a cornucopia filled with returns. If someone had told me that the 10-year U.S. Treasury note would be roughly at the same level that it started the year, gold up 10%, and oil remaining flat I would have guessed that the global equity markets may have been modestly up in the low single-digits based on continued earnings growth. Other than broad commodities, almost every single asset class is in positive territory this year. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is up 3.26% while the S&P 500 Index has increased 16.58% (as of 11/15/17). This is almost a flashback of 2012, when the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate bond Index increased 4.21% while the S&P 500 Index gained 16%. Similar to this year, 2012 saw Hurricane Sandy occur, yet it also saw large events such as the fiscal cliff debate, the Eurozone debt crisis (who remembers that May when the Dow dropped 1,000 points), and the Fed launching QE 3. There was much more uncertainty as well with constant fears of a double-dip recession. Volatility remained quite high with the S&P 500 Index at one point giving back all of the gains of the year during the summer months. All said and done, those that were invested have much to be thankful for.

The week ahead we will have three major events: the release of the FOMC minutes, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday. With the market already heavily pricing in a December rate hike, the key take away will be to see if further posturing for 2018 can be decoded. Black Friday has lost a little of its luster as technology has changed the way people shop. I, for one, no longer miss being dragged out of my Thanksgiving food coma to line up to start shopping at midnight! These days we have Amazon Prime day, a mini-black Friday in itself, and over in China, Singles Day by Alibaba. To put the disruption in perspective, Alibaba’s sales hit $1 billion in just 2 minutes, $10 billion after one hour and six minutes, and hit $25 billion after 24 hours.

This year I’ll be instituting my colleague Steve Mill’s “Fed Diet”, cutting back on desserts from three to two (sorry sweet potato soufflé, pumpkin pie and pecan won out this year). Wishing you and yours a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Data deck for November 18 – November 24: 

Date

Indicator

Period

November 20

Leading Indicators

October

November 21

Existing Home Sales

October

November 22

Capital Goods

October

November 22

Durable Goods

October

November 22

Initial Jobless Claims

----

November 22

University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment (Final)

November

November 22

FOMC Minutes

----

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION    

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more