INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

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The Week Ahead – “Hello, is it me you’re looking for?” – Volatility

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Well that was quite an interesting week! More record breaking in the world of investments. Let’s start with 1,175. That’s the amount the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down on Monday, the largest point drop ever and the first time ever above 1,000. It didn’t take long for us to see the second 1,000 point drop, which occurred on Thursday. Intra-day trading on Monday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 1,600 at one point, hitting a record -1,597. What was also interesting was that fixed income wasn’t a safe place to hide, as we saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a four-year high of 2.88%. Gold closed lower for the week as well. Cash was king. While this bump of volatility has been surprising in its magnitude, the underlying reason of higher inflation expectations shouldn’t have been. The fixed income market realized that the economy was continuing to improve and re-priced accordingly in January, with the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index down a little under 1% for the month. It took equity investors another week (and some nudging from the Fed’s hawkish comments/ wage growth report) to process that inflation could be higher than many had expected.

Now the last record for the largest point drop for the Dow was 777, seen on September 29. If you recall, September 2008 had quite a few market worries: Fannie and Freddie were nationalized, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of America before it went under, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley converted from investment banks to bank holding companies, AIG failed and was nationalized, multiple money market funds broke the buck and the U.S. Treasury had to come in and offer temporary insurance, short selling of financial stocks were suspended by the SEC, and the initial TARP program was rejected by Congress (on September 29th). This time around the fear isn’t recession… but rather have we moved from reflation to inflation.

Now on to a more positive record – Southern California native Mirai Nagasu became the first American woman (and third overall) to land a triple axel in the Olympics!

With investors laser focused on inflation, the week ahead will have the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reporting for January. An overly strong report may further spook markets as inflation expectations get re-adjusted over the next few years.

Data deck for February 10 – February 16:

Date

Indicator

Period

February 12

Monthly Budget Statement

January

February 14

Advanced Retail Sales

January

February 14

Consumer Price Index

January

February 15

Initial Jobless Claims

----

February 15

Producer Price Index

January

February 15

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

February

February 15

Empire Manufacturing Index

February

February 15

Industrial Production

January

February 15

NAHB Housing Market Index

February

February 16

Housing Starts

January

February 16

Import Prices

January

February 16

University of Michigan Sentiment

February

 

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Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more