The Week Ahead – Azaleas

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Apologies for the later-than-normal update; while I wish I could say I was in San Antonio watching the NCAA Men's Final Four, I was actually out with a cold. Congrats to the Villanova Wildcats and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for winning their respective NCAA tournaments! Exciting games, much like the first quarter of 2018! A large run up in January, followed by the first real glimpse of volatility in February, and then continuing on through March. The S&P 500 saw its first negative total return quarter since the third quarter of 2015. The backdrop for that 2015 quarter? Greek bailouts and China surprising investors by devaluing their currency multiple times within a week. Investors sold off Chinese equities on the fears that the Chinese economy would have a hard landing, prompting a mass-scale sell of emerging markets, which then bled through all global risk assets. This time? Besides the a-much ballyhooed trade war headlines, much of the volatility has been emerging from the tech sector. The new quarter will bring a much needed earnings season to help investors focus back on the fundamentals.

For this week, Friday’s employment report will be the main economic indicator that investors will be focusing on. However, with trade wars and tariffs still much on many investor’s minds, the U.S. trade balance report will likely be something to be watched more closely going forward. As exciting as the recent market volatility has been, the other main event for this week is Tiger Woods' much anticipated return to the Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club! Keep your eye out for the beautiful azaleas that line the course.  

Data deck for March 31 – April 6: