The Week Ahead – Longest Bull

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Last Tuesday, the S&P 500 touched an intraday record of 2,873.23, marking not only an all-time high, but making this the longest bull market on record at 3,453 days. This remarkable run began on March 9^th, 2009 from the rubble of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) when the S&P 500 touched a low of 667. The market has quadrupled since, surviving many negative events along the way. In hindsight, none of these pitfalls seem quite so scary, but there was: the downgrade of America’s credit rating in 2011, the possible collapse of the euro, concerns about Greece leaving the EU (GREXIT), worries about a China hard landing in early 2016 and the oil crash soon after that.

Yet, while volatility spiked, nothing has derailed the inexorable rise of the U.S. stock market. While there were a few close calls, the S&P 500 never entered bear market territory; widely regarded as a 20% fall from a recent high.

This week is rather light on data, but will yield some key statistics that have the potential to move markets. The one that is likely to garner the most headlines is the advance trade in goods indicator. Last month, the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $68.3 billion in June, up 5.5%. It’s important to note this is not unexpected as the U.S. economy is growing strongly, which means we are consuming more. With the trade war taking center stage in the investment zeitgeist, it will be interesting to see how trade is being affected. GDP growth was positively affected by accelerating the shipment of goods before the tariffs went into effect, so it should be very interesting to see what happens on Tuesday.

And, of course, one of the most important indicators is core inflation. We haven’t seen core inflation at these levels since 2008. It is this impulse that is causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as a way to cool down the economy before it overheats. The Fed has indicated it is comfortable running the economy “hot” for a while in hopes of having stronger growth, but if inflation continues to accelerate, the Fed will likely increase rates beyond market expectations. These are unusual times as normally fiscal and monetary policies move in the same direction. This time, however, we have massive fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts, while the Federal Reserve is attempting to slow down the economy by raising interest rates.

Data deck for August 27 – August 31: