Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.
Trade war. Tariffs. Markets down! Well, let’s take a quick look at what’s occurred over roughly the last ten years:
-Federal Reserve arranges takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase
-Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy
-Congress passes TARP
-Obama is sworn in as the President of the United States
-$787 billion U.S. stimulus bill is signed
-H1N1 virus, a “global pandemic”
-Dubai credit crisis
-Haiti earthquake
-Obama signs healthcare bill
-End of Quantitative Easing 1
-Greek debt cut below investment grade
-Flash Crash
-Deep Horizon Oil Spill
-Obama signs Dodd-Frank law
-U.S. debt crisis Imminent
-EU and IMF bailout Ireland
-Meredith Whitney predicts muni bond blow up
-Japan earthquake
-Portugal bailout
-European sovereign debt crisis continues to spread
-End of Quantitative Easing 2
-S&P downgrades U.S. debt rating to AA+
-Greek bailout (second time)
-Fiscal Cliff (again)
-Hurricane Sandy
-U.S. Budget sequestration
-North Korea confirms successful nuclear device
-Boston marathon bombing
-Detroit files for bankruptcy
-Partial U.S. federal government shutdown
-Ebola outbreak in West Africa
-ISIS begins offensive in Iraq
-QE 3 tapering begins
-Oil prices collapse
-Russia moves troops to Crimea
-Argentina defaults
-Swiss de-peg from the Euro
-California drought begins
-QE 3 ends
-U.S. Supreme Court affirms ”Obamacare”
-Chinese stock market crashes
-Russia launches air strikes in Syria
-FOMC lifts off from zero
-Paris terror attacks
-BREXIT
-Trump sworn in as the President of the United States
-More FOMC rate hikes
-Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
-Fed balance sheet normalization begins
I may have forgotten a few here and there (Golden State Warriors blowing a 3-1 lead, Dodgers World Series Game 7, Atlanta Falcons losing the Super Bowl after having a 25 point lead), but at the end of the day we’ve seen multiple events that have had a more significant impact to global markets and investor confidence. At this time the tariffs seem to be more sabre rattling than anything, but still have definitely surprised investors. In the week ahead, employment will be the focus for investors starting with private payrolls mid-week and ending with the employment report on Friday. Lastly, congratulations to Kobe Bryant for winning his first Oscar for “Dear Basketball”, a beautiful visualization of his retirement letter.
Data deck for March 3 – March 9:
|
Date |
Indicator |
Period |
|
March 5 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
February |
|
March 6 |
Durable Goods Orders |
January |
|
March 7 |
ADP Employment Report |
February |
|
March 7 |
Non-Farm Productivity |
4Q17 |
|
March 7 |
Trade Balance |
January |
|
March 8 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
March |
|
March 9 |
Employment Report |
February |
|
March 9 |
Wholesale Inventories |
January |