The Week Ahead – Summer of ‘69

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

This past week’s initial jobless claims report of 207,000 was the lowest since 1969. 1969 was also the year where United States’ GDP crossed the $1 trillion threshold for the first time. At the end of 2017, that number was a staggering $19 trillion. Of course that got me thinking of Bryan Adam’s 1984 hit song “Summer of ’69” and the lines “And now the times are changin', Look at everything that's come and gone”. Per a report by singularity.com/ U.S. Census Bureau, new technology is getting adopted quicker which has contributed to economic growth. When electricity was introduced back in 1873, it took 46 years before it was adopted by 25% of the U.S. population. Three years later, the telephone was invented and it took 35 years before 25% of the U.S. population was using it. Radio (1897) took 31 years, television (1926) took 26 years, the personal computer (1975) took 16 years, mobile phones (1983) 13 years, and the World Wide Web (1991) 7 years.

The week ahead will be highlighted with the advance readings for second quarter GDP and Core PCE. As domestic retail sales have improved (May was notably revised higher), expectations for economic growth have further increased with many economists expecting a reading of at least 4.0% for the second quarter. Who knows, maybe 2018 will be known as the year where U.S. GDP crossed the $20 trillion threshold!

Data deck for July 21 – July 27: