Smart insight and clear visuals that matter – what we’re watching now and how intention and conviction shape our portfolios.
While the Fed meeting next week should be a welcome respite for housing demand, the data we are observing prior to the meeting raises concerns. Pending home sales declined 2.6% YoY, the steepest move in 8-months, given a combination of persistent mortgage rates holding +6% and seasonality. Rate cut expectations are 98% going into next week per below.
Private employers dropped 32,000 jobs in November. Job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025 and pay growth has been on a downward trend. November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.
Source: ADP
Source: ADP
We believe there are two reasons to remain bearish on the US dollar in 2026. First, the share of US goods exports relative to world exports should continue to fall, and second, the US dollar is a counter-reflation and counter-cyclical currency that usually depreciates as global growth prospects increase, and other central banks cut rates. The US dollar or DXY has declined 22% through past bear markets. So far, the DXY is down 9% from its January 10 peak.
A recent study on the Global Longevity Economy highlights the growing economic impact of people aged 50+. In 2020, they contributed $45 trillion (34% of global GDP), projected to reach $65 trillion (36%) by 2030 and $118 trillion (39%) by 2050. This trend spans all economies, regardless of income or demographics. Advances in AI and precision medicine are transforming health and longevity through earlier diagnoses, personalized treatments, and improved disease management. GLP-1 therapies are reshaping obesity and chronic disease care, while new Alzheimer’s drugs aim to slow cognitive decline. In our opinion, these shifts underscore the importance of aligning portfolios with longevity-driven sectors and planning for extended lifespans, evolving healthcare costs, and new investment opportunities.
Leading tech firms spend billions on AI infrastructure, but revenues remain behind. In 2025, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are projected to spend $332 billion on AI-related capital expenditures versus just $28.7 billion in AI product revenue. This imbalance appears to highlight the long-term nature of AI bets and the potential volatility in tech valuations. These dynamics can influence portfolio risk, sector allocation, and timing for growth versus income strategies.
Tues, 12/9 @ 10 am: Job openings (delayed report for Oct)
Wed, 12/10 @ 2 pm: FOMC interest-rate decision
Wed, 12/10 @ 230 pm: Fed Chair Powell press conference
Thu, 12/11 @ 830 am: Initial Jobless Claims