Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.
Can’t keep winning. Too old. Long in the tooth. Close to the end of the cycle. Regression eminent. Wait, are we talking about the U.S. economy or are we talking about the New England Patriots? Six Super Bowl wins in seventeen years (at the expense of our Los Angeles Rams nonetheless). Patriots star quarterback Tom Brady is now the only NFL player to win six Super Bowls and the only player to appear in nine Super Bowls. Much like the many pundits who wrote off Tom Brady and the Patriots the past few years, many investors wrote off the U.S. economy and equity markets in the fourth quarter of 2018. January sure felt much better than December for investors, but did you know that the S&P 500 just posted its best monthly total return since 1987? Meanwhile, the VIX index (volatility) declined 35%! How quickly things change! A positive January historically has led to a positive year 92% of the time since 1936, with an average S&P 500 return of 19.4%. Caveat, we had a positive January (+5.6%) last year too, so take it for what it’s worth. As my colleague Louis Abel wrote in his latest commentary, Winter Is Here, there are many reasons why we’re optimistic for 2019.
The week ahead will be relatively quiet compared to last week’s waterfall of data (how about another solid employment report with payrolls growing 304,000 and the unemployment rate slightly ticking up to 4%). Investors will be looking to see if the ISM Non-Manufacturing index can bounce back in January after December’s surprise large decline. Additionally, with all the trade rhetoric currently making headlines, keep an eye on the U.S. trade balance numbers on Wednesday. Lastly, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida will be speaking at events this week, on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Let’s hope they stick with the dovish script! Don’t worry L.A. Rams fans, Vegas already has the Chiefs as 6/1 favorites for next year’s Super Bowl, closely followed by 8/1 odds for the Rams, Saints … and Patriots.
Data deck for February 1-February 8:
|
Date |
Indicator |
Period |
|
February 4 |
Durable Goods Orders (Final) |
November |
|
February 4 |
Factory Orders |
November |
|
February 5 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
January |
|
February 6 |
Trade Balance |
November |
|
February 6 |
Nonfarm Productivity (Preliminary) |
4Q18 |
|
February 7 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
---- |