A First Foundation Blog

The Week Ahead – Fed Week

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week. 

Equities enjoyed a strong bounce last week, despite consumer confidence and sentiment indicators plummeting to all-time lows. The question of whether Russia would turn the gas back on to Europe, the ECB rate decision and Italian politics were all big overhangs. In the U.S., housing starts were weak, existing home sales were weak, jobless claims were worse than expected, and PMI data was soft. After a tumultuous year in equities, could recent performance signal a turn in markets and brighter days ahead? With the market narrative volleying between “we are definitely going into recession,” and “we are maybe going into recession... at some point,” we believe the incoming data this week is key in answering that question, as either narrative could gather momentum depending on how all of the data comes in.

This coming week is a heavy data week, with home prices, new and existing home sales, durable goods orders, 2Q GDP, jobless claims, and the Fed on Wednesday. We believe the Fed will remain overwhelmingly focused on inflation and signal additional rate hikes in the future in its comments this week. In our view, an adjustment of the U.S. economy is underway, and much lower growth rates should be expected in the coming quarters, with the Fed tightening until inflation is again under control.

Data deck for July 23 - July 29:




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Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
About the Author
Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Mr. Jones is a senior member of the First Foundation Advisors investment management team and is responsible for working closely with First Foundation’s financial advisors to develop investment strategies utilizing income assets to help clients achieve their financial goals. In his role, Mr. Jones serves on the company’s Investment and Asset Allocation committees and is responsible for leading and overseeing the firm’s fixed income assets. Mr. Jones joined First Foundation Advisors in 2011. His previous experience at ProShare Advisors included trading and analysis in global equity and derivatives markets for the world’s largest manager of leveraged and inverse funds. Mr. Jones earned a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the University of Pittsburgh and a Master of Science in Mathematical Finance degree from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. He is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Los Angeles. Read more