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The Week Ahead – Halfway Mark

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week. 

At the halfway mark of 2021, life is almost back to normal, and equity markets have experienced the second-best first-half year performance since 1998 (behind 2019) for the S&P. Not too shabby. However, the consequences of COVID are still with us. The Fed’s stimulus and bond-buying programs are barely different from a year ago, even though markets have more than recovered. We continue to believe that equity markets have further room to run due to a substantial economic and corporate earnings environment and ongoing stimulus programs. However, the remainder of the year will be a transition period as the Fed has already signaled it plans to shift towards less accommodative policies, and with transition comes volatility.

As we move through the second half of the year, the Fed will be transitioning from a crisis level of accommodation. Additionally, the pace of economic recovery is likely to be appreciably slower. The slowdown in economically sensitive sectors (Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Energy) and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields conveys that markets are already starting to discount this transition. During the previous incidence of tapering, equity markets initially had difficulty interpreting the Fed’s communication and stumbled. This time around, we think the Fed has more effectively prepared the markets for tapering; however, we would not be surprised by a 7-12% pullback. In our view, if markets are well-informed in advance about the tapering of Fed asset purchases and have clarity over future tax measures and programs, market disturbances related to the transition will be short-lived and should serve as an opportunity for apprehensive investors to more confidently scale into the markets.

This week, only a few data releases are lined up, and much of the focus will be on the minutes of the June FOMC meeting. We expect the main focus will be centered on details about the discussion on tapering. The services ISM is expected to worsen in June, but remain quite elevated, consistent with strong growth as re-opening continues.

Data deck for July 3–July 9:
WA chart 7.6.21

 

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Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. Please remember that if you are a First Foundation client, it remains your responsibility to advise First Foundation, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request, or at firstfoundationinc.com.  Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
About the Author
Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Mr. Jones is a senior member of the First Foundation Advisors investment management team and is responsible for working closely with First Foundation’s financial advisors to develop investment strategies utilizing income assets to help clients achieve their financial goals. In his role, Mr. Jones serves on the company’s Investment and Asset Allocation committees and is responsible for leading and overseeing the firm’s fixed income assets. Mr. Jones joined First Foundation Advisors in 2011. His previous experience at ProShare Advisors included trading and analysis in global equity and derivatives markets for the world’s largest manager of leveraged and inverse funds. Mr. Jones earned a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the University of Pittsburgh and a Master of Science in Mathematical Finance degree from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. He is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Los Angeles. Read more