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The Week Ahead – Long and Variable Lags are Here and Now

| 3/20/23 11:53 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

The ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the banking sector continues, making the current situation very fluid. Indeed, it has now become international as Credit Suisse was just bailed out and is merging with UBS.  

Wednesday is the much-anticipated Federal Reserve Decision Day, followed up with a conference by Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell. One prominent economist, Torsten Slok of Apollo, believes that the crisis may have a similar cooling effect on financial conditions as if the Federal Reserve had hiked rates another 1.5%. If that is the case, then the Fed should immediately go on hold. Despite the ongoing crisis, the Fed is expected to raise rates another quarter of a percent. However, the market is clearly betting that the path after Wednesday will be rate cuts. Seems like just yesterday that many investment pundits were raising their estimates on the terminal Fed Funds rate to the point that 6% seemed reasonable. Everything has changed since Silicon Valley Bank became insolvent. As of this writing, the consensus estimate for the Federal Reserve overnight rate has come all the way down to 4%. It will be highly unusual for the Fed to raise in the midst of a crisis, but not raising rates could create another type of crisis - one of confidence. If the Fed were to change course too quickly, that could spark fears the Fed knows the situation is more dire sending markets into panic. Our best guess: 25 basis point increase, followed by a dovish tone from Jay Powell.

The great economist, Milton Friedman was quoted as saying rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have “long and variable lags”. This means it takes about 12 months for the effects of higher interest rates to affect the economy. With the first-rate hike starting last March, it’s uncanny how accurate this turned out to be.

Data Deck for March 20 – March 24:

Date

Indicator

Period

Mar 21

Existing home sales

Feb

Mar 22

Fed interest-rate decision

 

Mar 22

Fed Chair Powell press conference

 

Mar 23

U.S. current account

Q4

Mar 23

Initial jobless claims

 

Mar 23

Continuing jobless claims

 

Mar 23

New home sales

Feb

Mar 24

Durable goods

Feb

Mar 24

S&P Global flash U.S. services PMI

Mar

Mar 24

S&P Global flash U.S. manufacturing PMI

Mar

 

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Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
About the Author
Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
Mr. Dulyea serves as a Portfolio Strategist on the investment team and is responsible for conducting manager research and executing investment strategies for clients. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights. Mr. Dulyea’s specializes in advising client portfolios, defining investment plans, and communicating the firm’s investment viewpoints. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Dulyea was a Director, Portfolio Manager at Deutsche Bank. In addition to working directly with clients, he was a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Group and managed customized portfolios for clients. He previously worked in the Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group as a Vice President, Senior Investment Strategist and at Merrill Lynch as a Vice President, Portfolio Manager. Mr. Dulyea earned his Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) from California Polytechnic University, Pomona and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charter. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from the California Polytechnic University, Pomona. He also served as an adjunct Professor of Finance at California Polytechnic University, Pomona for two years. Read more