INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

A First Foundation Blog

The Week Ahead – Looking Back

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

1 Year.
12 months.
365 days.

March 13, 2020 is seared into my memory as it was the last time that I had a meal inside a restaurant in Los Angeles County (for those that crave Oyster Bar style Pan Roast I highly recommend The Dive in Temple City). On March 15 everything came to a standstill, as Mayor Eric Garcetti issued an order for all indoor dining to be halted as well as temporary closures on many businesses such as entertainment venues, bowling alleys, arcades, and gyms and fitness centers. That evening First Foundation also made the tough decision to have the majority of our staff begin working remotely. One year later, things are starting to look slightly more normal as indoor dining will once again be allowed (here’s to hoping that it lasts longer than the very brief summer reopening) as Covid-19 case counts continue to decline and the population of vaccinated people continues to increase. The S&P 500 has returned a gain of 48% over the last 12-months but we know that it hasn’t been all smooth sailing over that time. Now for some more staggering statistics. The Fed has purchased $2.4 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities over the last 52-weeks through the week of March 10 of this year, along with $0.7 trillion in agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

This past week, President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill and over the weekend some people began receiving their $1,400 stimulus checks. Even before the weekend, commercial banks saw a record $3.0 trillion in deposits through the week of March 3. As my colleague Brett Dulyea wrote in last week’s piece “Growing Pains” overtime bond yields move in sympathy with GDP and those expectations continue to rise as more and more investors now believe that the worst is behind us. This past Friday we saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jump to 1.64%, the highest level since February 6, 2020. In the midst of last year’s certainty the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched as low as 0.58%. While 1.64% is dramatically higher than 0.58% on a percentage basis, it’s important to look back and remember that the 10-year U.S. Treasury was yielding 1.88% to start 2020. Given the extreme amount of both monetary and fiscal stimulus it makes sense that investors begin pricing in better growth and inflation.

While the week ahead will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data, investors will be once again focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as the FOMC will be providing their latest rate decision in the middle of the week. As you may recall, when Fed Chair Powell testified to Congress in late February markets quickly turned negative as investors deemed that his comments were not dovish enough and that inflation may force the Fed to raise rates much quicker than originally anticipated. Per the CME, the market is currently expecting a 100% chance of no change, as in the Fed will neither increase nor decrease the Fed Funds rate. The Fed’s language will be closely monitored and Fed Chair Powell will most likely be seeking a fine balance between a more upbeat assessment on the outlook of the economy while reigning talk around inflation expectations. There’s a chance that the Fed’s “Dot plots” may show one hike by the end of 2023 as the ingredients which would warrant one, the unemployment rate back at pre-pandemic levels, and inflation modestly above target, may very well be on track in two years’ time. In the meantime, I look forward to enjoying some pan roast in the near future.  

Weekly S&P 500 price returns:

Week ending 1/8/2021:                 +1.88%
Week ending 1/15/2021:               -1.46%
Week ending 1/22/2021:               +1.96%
Week ending 1/29/2021:               -3.29%
Week ending 2/5/2021:                 +4.67%
Week ending 2/12/2021:               +1.28%
Week ending 2/19/2021:               -0.68%
Week ending 2/26/2021:               -2.41%                   ß FOMC testimony to Congress
Week ending 3/5/2021:                 +0.84%
Week ending 3/12/2021:               +2.69%

Data deck for March 13–March 19

Date

Indicator

Period

March 15

Empire Manufacturing

March

March 16

Import Price Index

February

March 16

Advance Retail Sales

February

March 16

Industrial Production

February

March 16

NAHB Housing Market Index

March

March 17

Housing Starts

February

March 17

FOMC Rate Decision

----

March 18

Initial Jobless Claims

----

March 18

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

March

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION    

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. Please remember that if you are a First Foundation client, it remains your responsibility to advise First Foundation, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request, or at firstfoundationinc.com.  Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more