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The Week Ahead – Love Vaccine + Money

| 2/16/21 8:40 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

I hope everyone had a wonderful Valentine’s Day weekend. In fact, there is a lot to love about the current positive trends for COVID-19. Cases are now falling by about 24% per week. We expect 140MM more people to be inoculated over the next two months, at which point the country will be very close to herd immunity. While the virus is not completely going away, we expect things to start feeling somewhat normal by the summer.

We have raised our estimated amount for a fiscal relief/stimulus that will be authorized for 2021 from $2 -$2.5 trillion to $3 -$4 trillion. Our sense is that this may be pushing beyond what is optimal for the markets, as it risks overheating the economy and would generate a higher path for interest rates. If yields go up too far too fast, we could see a shock that would likely dislocate markets. The initial $1.9 trillion package is most likely more than enough to close the output gap caused by the economic fallout from the pandemic. The view from the Biden administration is that it is better to go big rather than risk an undershoot. This was very much the case when the Obama/Biden administration presided over the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which authorized the Treasury Secretary to create the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)—and the $840 billion stimulus package under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The combined stimulus of $1.5 trillion led to one of the slowest economic recoveries on record. Keep in mind many economists were worried about runaway inflation, which never materialized.

Interest rates have crept higher along with inflation expectations. However, as long as COVID is still here and unemployment remains high, core inflation is likely to remain low and stable. The services components of CPI, such as rents, airline fares, accommodations, vehicle insurance, auto rental and leisure/recreation, remain crushed by the impact of the virus.

This week, we will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) print, which measures the inflation in the prices received by domestic producers for their output. We expect this statistic to remain well contained.

While a bond market tantrum is a top risk to our constructive view on markets, the Federal Reserve has indicated they will allow inflation to go above their 2% target. Since overly hawkish central bankers are often the cause of market pullbacks, the fact that the Fed is explicitly stating they will keep rates at the zero bound despite rising inflation should give investors comfort that this recovery still has legs.

Data deck for February 15–February 19:

Date

Indicator

Period

Feb. 16

Empire State manufacturing index

Feb.

Feb. 17

Retail sales

Jan.

Feb. 17

Retail sales ex-autos

Jan.

Feb. 17

Producer price index final demand

Jan.

Feb. 17

Industrial production

Jan.

Feb. 17

Capacity utilization

Jan.

Feb. 17

Business inventories

Jan.

Feb. 17

National Association of Home Builders index

Feb.

Feb. 17

FOMC minutes

 

Feb. 18

Initial jobless claims (regular state program)

Feb. 6

Feb. 18

Continuing jobless claims (regular state program)

Dec.

Feb. 18

Housing starts (SAAR)

Jan.

Feb. 18

Building permits (SAAR)

Jan.

Feb. 18

Import price index

Jan.

Feb. 18

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

Feb.

Feb. 19

Markit manufacturing PMI (flash)

Feb.

Feb. 19

Markit services PMI (flash)

Feb.

Feb. 19

Existing home sales (SAAR)

Jan.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION    

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. Please remember that if you are a First Foundation client, it remains your responsibility to advise First Foundation, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request, or at firstfoundationinc.com.  Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
About the Author
Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
Mr. Dulyea serves as a Portfolio Strategist on the investment team and is responsible for conducting manager research and executing investment strategies for clients. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights. Mr. Dulyea’s specializes in advising client portfolios, defining investment plans, and communicating the firm’s investment viewpoints. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Dulyea was a Director, Portfolio Manager at Deutsche Bank. In addition to working directly with clients, he was a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Group and managed customized portfolios for clients. He previously worked in the Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group as a Vice President, Senior Investment Strategist and at Merrill Lynch as a Vice President, Portfolio Manager. Mr. Dulyea earned his Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) from California Polytechnic University, Pomona and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charter. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from the California Polytechnic University, Pomona. He also served as an adjunct Professor of Finance at California Polytechnic University, Pomona for two years. Read more