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The Week Ahead – New Year, New Economy

| 1/4/21 9:01 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

As we head into 2021, the focus is squarely on distributing vaccines and getting to a future where Covid-19 is discussed in the past tense. Of course, the last time we had a pandemic of this magnitude was almost exactly one-hundred years ago. There have been many parallels drawn between the current backdrop and the Roaring Twenties, with the biggest coincidence being the devastating H1N1 virus known at the time as the Spanish Flu. In the wake of World War I and the pandemic, this period was marked by massive pent up demand, which led to a decade of wild economic prosperity and cultural progression. Not unlike 1920, the world is heading into the New Year with a lot of economic momentum. As we have mentioned before, many of the most powerful stimulative policy measures effectuated in the spring take 12-18 months to be fully realized. Now with an additional $900 billion fiscal package going into effect, it is looking like economic growth in first quarter could be supercharged. Prior to last week’s passage of the stimulus, the consensus among economists was for Q1 GDP growth to be a somewhat disappointing 2.5% annualized rate. The autumn spike in infection rates have taken a toll on re-opening the economy – impeding the recovery. Indeed, many states have instituted draconian lock-downs in the interest of public safety. If just half of the money earmarked for consumers is spent in the first quarter, aggregate spending would increase by a whopping 7%. Many economists have already doubled their economic growth forecasts to the 5-6% range; however, I suspect there is actually upside risk to these raised expectations (particularly if the relief checks go from $600 to $2,000).

Beyond the massive amount of stimulus still in the pipeline, there are multitudes of factors supporting continued synchronized global economic growth. One of the key dynamics to pay attention to is inventories, which are expected to continue to rebuild from their currently low levels. This Friday we will get greater clarity when we see the wholesale inventories print.

With unemployment at nearly 7%, the Roarin’ 20s comparison is perhaps a bridge too far at this point, but there is no denying many parts of the global economy are booming. And, while I do not think we will see flappers and jazz making a comeback, the lagged effects of ultra-easy monetary policy and massive fiscal support are setting up for an economy that just might be the bee's knees.

Data deck for January 4–January 8:

Date

Indicator

Period

Jan. 4

Markit manufacturing PMI

Dec.

Jan. 4

Construction spending

Nov.

Jan. 5

ISM manufacturing index

Dec.

Jan. 5

Motor vehicle sales

Dec.

Jan. 6

ADP employment report

Dec.

Jan. 6

Markit manufacturing PMI

Dec.

Jan. 6

Factory orders

Nov.

Jan. 6

FOMC meeting minutes

 

Jan. 7

Initial jobless claims

Jan. 2

Jan. 7

Continuing jobless claims

Dec. 19

Jan. 7

Trade deficit

Nov.

Jan. 7

ISM services index

Dec.

Jan. 8

Nonfarm payrolls

Dec.

Jan. 8

Unemployment rate

Dec.

Jan. 8

Average hourly earnings

Dec.

Jan. 8

Wholesale inventories

Nov.

Jan. 8

Consumer credit

Nov.

 

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Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
About the Author
Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
Mr. Dulyea serves as a Portfolio Strategist on the investment team and is responsible for conducting manager research and executing investment strategies for clients. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights. Mr. Dulyea’s specializes in advising client portfolios, defining investment plans, and communicating the firm’s investment viewpoints. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Dulyea was a Director, Portfolio Manager at Deutsche Bank. In addition to working directly with clients, he was a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Group and managed customized portfolios for clients. He previously worked in the Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group as a Vice President, Senior Investment Strategist and at Merrill Lynch as a Vice President, Portfolio Manager. Mr. Dulyea earned his Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) from California Polytechnic University, Pomona and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charter. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from the California Polytechnic University, Pomona. He also served as an adjunct Professor of Finance at California Polytechnic University, Pomona for two years. Read more