The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of tightening Fed policy. This was supposed to be the year of a likely recession. That has yet to happen; in fact, global equities continued to rally in the second quarter of the year, led again by surging U.S. mega-cap growth stocks. The S&P 500 index gained 6.6% in June and 8.7% in the second quarter driving its year-to-date return to 16.9%. Developed international..
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Economic stresses began to appear during the first quarter, capped by the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history (Silicon Valley Bank), as rising rates, tighter lending conditions and shrinking liquidity weighed on economic growth. Despite the turmoil, global equity markets held up remarkably well in March and posted solid returns for the quarter.
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What a difference a few days make. Early last week, a more hawkish Fed had the market pricing in almost a coin flip between a 25bps rate hike and a 50bps rate hike. The theme was “higher for longer.” However, we ended the week with a run on the banking sector, which saw the collapse of two large regional banks. While there are echoes of the Great Financial Crisis, this time around it isn’t so much a credit issue (bad loans) but a..
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