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The Week Ahead – Thanksgiving Virtually

| 11/23/20 8:48 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Thanksgiving is going to be different this year. Like many families, we decided it would be safer to celebrate Thanksgiving by staying home and seeing loved ones on FaceTime. With COVID-19 cases spiking, even outdoors felt a little too unsafe given our parents’ age and the potential for serious health issues. We will be enjoying the holiday 2020 style, by using the technologies that have allowed us to work, shop, matriculate, and even socialize from a distance.

While the infection rates are rising sharply, markets have been well behaving because there are a number of supportive factors that have created a positive backdrop.

Election uncertainty mitigated

While there remain some legal challenges and an important Senate vote in the great state of Georgia, the odds of a Biden White House and split congress are very high. A divided government will mean that a progressive agenda that includes a potentially inflationary fiscal stimulus, along with significantly higher taxes, is probably off the table.

Strong economic momentum

We just clocked the fastest economic growth since 1874 at an annualized rate of 33.1%. The latest economic forecast for fourth quarter GDP growth is 5.6% using the Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model. With interest rates remaining low, saving rates high, ultra-low inventories, surging corporate earnings (recovering 80%), and consumer net worth up $10 trillion this year (housing and stock market gains); the economy should be able to weather the coming weakness due to partial lockdowns. The economy just needs a bridge to get us to wide distribution of the vaccines in the first half of 2021. Hopefully, Congress can deliver some relief by yearend in the form of additional targeted fiscal stimulus.

Human ingenuity

The vaccines have arrived, and it turns out they work really well. Scientific studies indicate that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 95% effective, and is being fast-tracked using an emergency use authorization. In addition, Moderna’s version of its COVID-19 vaccine showed that it is 94.5% efficacious. Moreover, the Moderna vaccine does not have to be stored at -70 degree Celsius; normal refrigeration will do. That will greatly help with distribution logistics. Surveys are showing a sharp increase in willingness of people to take the vaccine given how well they reportedly work. Before the news on these vaccines, only ~50% of people said they would be willing to be inoculated; however, the latest number has risen to 82%. The combination of 95% efficacy and high levels of uptake should allow us to talk about COVID-19 in the past tense by this fall.

This week, we will get some interesting housing data. Both the Case-Shiller national home price index and the new home sales statistic are likely to continue to show tremendous strength. The unprecedented surge in existing house sales will unleash many other purchases: appliances, furniture, furnishings, landscaping, electrical, painting, etc., creating a powerful feedback loop.

As we grapple with the fallout from the worsening pandemic, it is important to remember that this too shall pass. There are certainly a lot of negatives to worry about in the next few months, but we are so close to getting through these dark times – dawn is coming.

Data deck for November 23–November 27:

Date

Indicator

Period

Nov. 23

Chicago Fed national activity index

Oct.

Nov. 23

Markit manufacturing PM

Nov.

Nov. 23

Markit services PMI

Nov.

Nov. 24

Case-Shiller national home price index

Sept.

Nov. 25

Initial jobless claims

Nov.

Nov. 25

Continuing jobless claims

Nov.

Nov. 25

Durable goods orders

Oct.

Nov. 25

Core capital goods orders

Oct.

Nov. 25

Advance report on trade in goods

Oct.

Nov. 25

New home sales

Oct.

Nov. 25

Consumer sentiment index

Nov.

Nov. 25

Personal income

Oct.

Nov. 25

Consumer spending

Oct.

Nov. 25

Core inflation

Oct.

 

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Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. Please remember that if you are a First Foundation client, it remains your responsibility to advise First Foundation, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request, or at firstfoundationinc.com.  Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
About the Author
Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
Mr. Dulyea serves as a Portfolio Strategist on the investment team and is responsible for conducting manager research and executing investment strategies for clients. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights. Mr. Dulyea’s specializes in advising client portfolios, defining investment plans, and communicating the firm’s investment viewpoints. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Dulyea was a Director, Portfolio Manager at Deutsche Bank. In addition to working directly with clients, he was a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Group and managed customized portfolios for clients. He previously worked in the Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group as a Vice President, Senior Investment Strategist and at Merrill Lynch as a Vice President, Portfolio Manager. Mr. Dulyea earned his Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) from California Polytechnic University, Pomona and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charter. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from the California Polytechnic University, Pomona. He also served as an adjunct Professor of Finance at California Polytechnic University, Pomona for two years. Read more