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The Week Ahead – The Economy vs. the Market

| 5/4/20 8:00 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Over the long run, economic growth is the engine that drives the stock market. However, there are times when the two can behave very differently. Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism, it has the ability to see beyond the current news and look into the future. While the exact time period may vary, markets are generally focused four to six months out. Since the recent March 23 low, the S&P 500 has increased dramatically. Yet at the same time, we saw the economy shrink by 4.9% in the first quarter of the year, unemployment has spiked to 14%, and corporate earnings expectations have plummeted. While that is all very scary, government policy response has been stunning. Thus far, there has been nearly $10 trillion in fiscal stimulus and hundreds of monetary stimulus efforts announced globally since the COVID-19 crisis began. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury have also made it clear that there is “unlimited firepower” if more monetary and fiscal relief is required. Simply put, never underestimate the power of the Federal Reserve to influence asset prices.

Dramatic levels of relief served to limit the worst-case scenario (left-tail risk). These policy responses combined with positive news on both the level of infection rates and interesting new treatments have moved market sentiment from extreme fear (VIX over 80) to a longer-term focus: one that sees what the world may look like post-coronavirus. We will get through this, and while there will certainly be some long-term changes, there will be a return to normalcy at some point.

This week, we will see many difficult economic data points. To wit, it is likely that the unemployment rate will continue to go much higher. However, by the fourth quarter, we are expecting economic growth to turn up. We are already seeing some nascent positive signals (green shoots) from the trucking and restaurant sectors of the economy as stimulus checks are rolling in. The speed of the recovery could even exceed our expectations should we continue to see more human ingenuity in the form of new efficacious treatments and vaccines.

Data deck for May 4–May 8:

Date

Indicator

Period

May 4

Factory orders

Mar.

May 5

Trade deficit

Mar.

May 5

Markit services PMI

Apr.

May 5

ISM nonmanufacturing index

Apr.

May 6

ADP employment report

Apr.

May 7

Initial jobless claims

5/2

May 7

Productivity

Q1

May 7

Unit labor costs

Q1

May 8

Nonfarm payrolls

Apr.

May 8

Unemployment rate

Apr.

May 8

Average hourly earnings

Apr.

May 8

Wholesale inventories

Mar.

 

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Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
About the Author
Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
Mr. Dulyea serves as a Portfolio Strategist on the investment team and is responsible for conducting manager research and executing investment strategies for clients. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights. Mr. Dulyea’s specializes in advising client portfolios, defining investment plans, and communicating the firm’s investment viewpoints. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Dulyea was a Director, Portfolio Manager at Deutsche Bank. In addition to working directly with clients, he was a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Group and managed customized portfolios for clients. He previously worked in the Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group as a Vice President, Senior Investment Strategist and at Merrill Lynch as a Vice President, Portfolio Manager. Mr. Dulyea earned his Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) from California Polytechnic University, Pomona and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charter. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from the California Polytechnic University, Pomona. He also served as an adjunct Professor of Finance at California Polytechnic University, Pomona for two years. Read more