INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

A First Foundation Blog

The Week Ahead – The Ides of March

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

What’s with the month of March? Many investors famously remember March 6, 2009 as the day the S&P 500 index briefly touched 666 intraday as investors faced the edge of the abyss during the Great Financial Crisis. Flash forward to 2020 and I think many of us will remember a few dates. March 13, the day President Trump proclaimed Covid-19 to be a national emergency. March 19,  the day California Governor Newsom issued the “Stay at Home Order” for the entire state. And of course March 23, 2020. The day the S&P 500 touched 2,191 intraday, collapsing 34% over a five-week period. As equity markets have rebounded (hitting new highs in early September), investors have asked themselves as the regular flu season begins, will we see another economic shutdown and, if so, will we see another massive correction in equity markets?

What really occurred in March of this year was a corporate liquidity crunch as fixed income investors were fearful that companies in disrupted sectors would become insolvent. Another round of widespread pressure on corporate liquidity, similar to what we saw in March, seems unlikely, as many firms (even those in distressed sectors such as airlines, travel, and leisure) have taken advantage of attractive debt funding costs (low interest rates) and strong investor demand (central bank purchases). Per the International Monetary Fund, governments and central banks have taken forceful measures to ensure the credit markets, companies, small businesses, and unemployed workers to the due of $12 trillion globally. Looking at the Fed and ECB, on a combined basis they have expanded their balance sheets 64% year-over-year to a staggering $15 trillion.

Since 1932, the average four-year forward annualized return of the S&P 500 after an election has been 9.3%. Only three presidential elections (out of 22) have resulted in a negative forward result. 1937-1940 (Great Depression), 2001-2004 (Tech Wreck), and 2005-2009 (Great Financial Recession). While we have about 2.5 months left in this current four-year cycle, the S&P 500 is currently running at about a 14.5% annualized rate.

WA chart 10.19.20

This week, we will get an update from the Fed with the latest “Beige Book” being released on Wednesday. It’ll be good insight on the current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts and is always an easier read than most economic data releases, as it is more qualitative than quantitative. With a little over two weeks to go before the Presidential election, investors will continue to look for clarity on if the election will be a contested one or not. To further expand on our thoughts last week regarding the much anticipated stimulus relief bill which has driven markets higher more recently, if President Trump is re-elected expectations are for a stimulus relief bill to be passed before the end of the year. However, if former Vice President Biden is elected, the time frame could be between the end of the year and into early next year.

Data deck for October 17–October 23

Date

Indicator

Period

October 19

NAHB Housing Market Index

October

October 20

Building Permits & Housing Starts

September

October 21

FOMC Beige Book

----

October 22

Initial Jobless Claims

----

October 22

Existing Home Sales

September

October 22

Leading Indicators

September

October 23

Markit Manufacturing PMI

October

October 23

Market Services PMI

October

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION    

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. Please remember that if you are a First Foundation client, it remains your responsibility to advise First Foundation, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request, or at firstfoundationinc.com.  Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more