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The Week Ahead – The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back?
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The Week Ahead – The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back?

market commentary cropped

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Trade war. Tariffs. Markets down! Well, let’s take a quick look at what’s occurred over roughly the last ten years:

-Federal Reserve arranges takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase

-Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy

-Congress passes TARP

-Obama is sworn in as the President of the United States

-$787 billion U.S. stimulus bill is signed

-H1N1 virus, a “global pandemic”

-Dubai credit crisis

-Haiti earthquake

-Obama signs healthcare bill

-End of Quantitative Easing 1

-Greek debt cut below investment grade

-Flash Crash

-Deep Horizon Oil Spill

-Obama signs Dodd-Frank law

-U.S. debt crisis Imminent

-EU and IMF bailout Ireland

-Meredith Whitney predicts muni bond blow up

-Japan earthquake

-Portugal bailout

-European sovereign debt crisis continues to spread

-End of Quantitative Easing 2

-S&P downgrades U.S. debt rating to AA+

-Greek bailout (second time)

-Fiscal Cliff (again)

-Hurricane Sandy

-U.S. Budget sequestration

-North Korea confirms successful nuclear device

-Boston marathon bombing

-Detroit files for bankruptcy

-Partial U.S. federal government shutdown

-Ebola outbreak in West Africa

-ISIS begins offensive in Iraq

-QE 3 tapering begins

-Oil prices collapse

-Russia moves troops to Crimea

-Argentina defaults

-Swiss de-peg from the Euro

-California drought begins

-QE 3 ends

-U.S. Supreme Court affirms ”Obamacare”

-Chinese stock market crashes

-Russia launches air strikes in Syria

-FOMC lifts off from zero

-Paris terror attacks

-BREXIT

-Trump sworn in as the President of the United States

-More FOMC rate hikes

-Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

-Fed balance sheet normalization begins

I may have forgotten a few here and there (Golden State Warriors blowing a 3-1 lead, Dodgers World Series Game 7, Atlanta Falcons losing the Super Bowl after having a 25 point lead), but at the end of the day we’ve seen multiple events that have had a more significant impact to global markets and investor confidence. At this time the tariffs seem to be more sabre rattling than anything, but still have definitely surprised investors. In the week ahead, employment will be the focus for investors starting with private payrolls mid-week and ending with the employment report on Friday. Lastly, congratulations to Kobe Bryant for winning his first Oscar for “Dear Basketball”, a beautiful visualization of his retirement letter.

Data deck for March 3 – March 9:

Date

Indicator

Period

March 5

ISM Non-Manufacturing

February

March 6

Durable Goods Orders

January

March 7

ADP Employment Report

February

March 7

Non-Farm Productivity

4Q17

March 7

Trade Balance

January

March 8

Initial Jobless Claims

March

March 9

Employment Report

February

March 9

Wholesale Inventories

January

 

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Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more

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