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The Week Ahead – Economic Exceptionalism

| 7/3/23 11:34 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Happy July 4th! As we celebrate the birthday of our great nation, we should remember that the United States of America truly is an exceptional country. The American spirit of entrepreneurism has helped spawn the world’s greatest companies: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. started right here. Our political and economic system that fostered these incredible engines of wealth and prosperity deserve reverence and gratitude. Many other countries have tried to emulate the American model of business, but thus far; The USA is the star when it comes to economic exceptionalism.

The market has rallied strongly off the October 12th low for a number of reasons. But I would argue amongst the most salient is the belief that the Federal Reserve appears to be nearing the end of its campaign to slow growth and mitigate inflation. Raising interest rates 525 basis points (5.25%) in a year and a half is unprecedented. It is stunning how well businesses and consumers have delt with this economic shock. Indeed, the United States has had the fastest post-pandemic growth of any economy in the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). Further, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter was recently revised up – going from 1.1% to 2.0%. Particularly surprising has been how resilient housing has been. Homebuilders are selling houses as quickly as they can finish construction despite mortgage rates more than doubling. One could make a strong case the economy may not be as interest rate sensitive as it used to be.

There have been a lot of strong economic data of late. However, many economists are forecasting job growth to taper. This Friday’s employment report is expected to show the creation of just 195K jobs. That would pale in comparison to the 339K new jobs reported in May. The consensus among economists is for the unemployment rate to move from the historically low rate of 3.4% up to 3.7%. While layoffs are sad news, the market is likely to be pleased with these results as some forecasts are stating the Fed can probably hike just once more before looking to ease as early as next year. So far, the data show the Fed is in the process of successfully engineering a soft landing in a way few expected. If they can continue to rid the economy of inflation and avoid a recession – the so-called immaculate disinflation, Jay Powell could possibly go down as the greatest Fed Governor since Paul Volker.

Data Deck for July 3 –July 7:

Date

Indicator

Period

Jul 3

S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI

Jun

Jul 3

ISM manufacturing

Jun

Jul 3

Construction spending

May

Jul 4

July 4 holiday, all markets closed

 

Jul 5

ADP employment

Jun

Jul 5

Factory orders

May

Jul 5

Minutes of Fed's June FOMC meeting

 

Jul 6

Initial jobless claims

J

Jul 6

U.S. trade deficit

May

Jul 6

Job openings

May

Jul 6

S&P flash U.S. services PMI

 

Jul 6

ISM services

Jun

Jul 7

U.S. employment report

Jun

Jul 7

U.S. unemployment rate

Jun

Jul 7

U.S. hourly wages

Jun

Jul 7

Hourly wages year over year

 

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Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
About the Author
Brett Dulyea, CFA, CAIA
Mr. Dulyea serves as a Portfolio Strategist on the investment team and is responsible for conducting manager research and executing investment strategies for clients. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights. Mr. Dulyea’s specializes in advising client portfolios, defining investment plans, and communicating the firm’s investment viewpoints. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Dulyea was a Director, Portfolio Manager at Deutsche Bank. In addition to working directly with clients, he was a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Group and managed customized portfolios for clients. He previously worked in the Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group as a Vice President, Senior Investment Strategist and at Merrill Lynch as a Vice President, Portfolio Manager. Mr. Dulyea earned his Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) from California Polytechnic University, Pomona and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charter. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from the California Polytechnic University, Pomona. He also served as an adjunct Professor of Finance at California Polytechnic University, Pomona for two years. Read more