The Week Ahead – Fifty Years

Investments & Economy The Week Ahead Grow

The Week Ahead – Fifty Years

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer

| 2/3/20 8:41 AM

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Can you believe January has already come and gone? This past week seemed to move in slow motion day-to-day, as new headlines flew across the ticker tape. We processed the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gigi, and seven others. The Fed had their first meeting of the year and markets took their language and posturing as dovish, sending the 30-year U.S. treasury back below 2% and the 10-year U.S. treasury down to last September’s lows. U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019 came in 2.1% and at 2.3% for the full year of 2019 (slowing due to trade wars but not contracting). Brexit finally happened after 3.5 years, though not much will change for them over the next eleven months. Coronavirus fears continue to rise on a global scale.

Meanwhile, domestically, the Kansas City Chiefs rallied in a thriller and won their first Super Bowl in fifty years. During the Super Bowl, there were some interesting stats on how much has changed over the last 50-years. A 30-second commercial was $78,000 compared to $5.5–$5.6 million today, while the average ticket price in 1970 was $15 versus today’s average price of $2,500. A quick look at 1970 shows a world dealing with multiple walls of worry much akin to today’s environment. Taking a look back at various global epidemics over the last 50 years (and the acknowledgement that each was unique and economic business cycles differed) shows that, on average, investors are able to shrug off fears within six months.

The week ahead will be loaded with multiple data points for investors; starting with both manufacturing and services updates, and ending the week with the employment report.

Week Ahead chart 2.3.20

Data deck for February 1–February 7

Date	Indicator	Period
February 3	Construction Spending	December
February 3	ISM Manufacturing	January
February 3	Total Vehicle Sales	January
February 5	ADP Employment	January
February 5	Trade Balance	December
February 5	ISM Non-Manufacturing	January
February 6	Initial Jobless Claims	----
February 6	Employment Report	January

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer

About the Author

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer

Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more