INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

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The Week Ahead – Jobs, Jobs & Jobs

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Lost in the latest trade war chatter (Canada, Mexico, and EU this time) was that Friday’s employment report was solid once again. The unemployment rate is now at an 18-year low at 3.8%. The underutilization rate (also known as “U-6”) – which takes the unemployment rate and then includes those discouraged job seekers who have given up looking for work, people who have gone back to school or have become disabled, and those that are underemployed (those who have to settle for part-time jobs although they prefer full-time jobs) – decreased to 7.60%. The last time the U-6 was this low? May 2001.  Random flashback factoid, 2001 was the year America Online and Time Warner merged to become AOL Time Warner (anyone else miss hearing “you’ve got mail”?). Wage growth also beat expectations as it grew 0.3% in May to a year-over-year rate of 2.7%. With this data point, it is hard to see the FOMC not hiking at June’s meeting in two weeks. 

The week ahead will be relatively quiet as investors will be monitoring the ISM non-manufacturing index to see if it can reverse course after three consecutive months of declines. The NBA Finals heads to Cleveland as the Warriors hold serve and lead the Cavaliers 2-0!

Data deck for June 2 – June 8:

Date

Indicator

Period

June 4

Durable Goods Orders

April

June 4

Factory Orders

April

June 5

JOLTS Job Openings

April

June 5

ISM Non-Manufacturing

May

June 6

Trade Balance

April

June 6

Nonfarm Productivity

1Q18

June 7

Initial Jobless Claims

----

June 7

Consumer Credit

April

June 8

Wholesale Inventories

April

 

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Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more