Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.
How about that Kansas/ Duke game? What a thriller! And of course, March Madness isn’t complete without its Cinderella, congrats to the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers! The last time they made the final four? They won the championship (1963)!
The first Fed rate hike of the year. Facebook leaking out personal data. A presidential signature which imposed at least $50 billion in tariffs on imported goods from China. An American icon for generations, Toys ‘R’ Us, began liquidating inventory as they shut down operations. Another presidential signature at the last minute to avoid another government shutdown. All of this translated into one of the worst weeks for stocks in years. U.S. equity markets are currently looking to post their worst March since 2001. Lost in last week’s slew of negative news was that February’s durable goods report showed a nice rebound from the previous month with equipment purchases surging as companies invested in capital expenditures. Capital expenditures have been lagging since this business cycle began, as companies have been hesitant to invest due to new political winds and a slower growing economy. The momentum from tax reform should continue to reflect continued business investment which in turn will lead to stronger productivity growth – which increases potential economic growth and further extends this business cycle.
The week ahead will be highlighted by an inflation reading, but eyes will be focused on if China aggressively retaliates with tariffs on the United States. So far China has announced tariffs on U.S. exports totaling $3 billion (fresh and dried fruits, wine, ethyl alcohol, seamless steel pipes, pork and pork products, and recycled aluminum).
Data deck for March 24 – March 30:
|
Date |
Indicator |
Period |
|
March 27 |
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index |
January |
|
March 27 |
Consumer Confidence |
March |
|
March 27 |
Richmond Fed Survey |
March |
|
March 28 |
GDP (Third Estimate ) |
4Q17 |
|
March 28 |
Personal Consumption |
4Q17 |
|
March 28 |
Wholesale Trade |
February |
|
March 28 |
Pending Home Sales |
February |
|
March 29 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
---- |
|
March 29 |
PCE Core Price Index |
February |
|
March 29 |
Personal Income |
February |
|
March 29 |
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) |
March |
|
March 30 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index |
March |
