INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

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The Week Ahead – Seeing is Believing

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week. 

March Madness is upon us! Boy, do I miss those old, gritty Big East Pitt Panther teams – and boy, do they miss making the NCAA tourney annually because, let’s face it, it’s been a while, but I digress. With the heightened focus this past week on the Fed and bond yields, markets had yet another volatile week as they continue to adjust to higher bond yields. The Fed’s message has been clear – financial conditions will remain accommodative, and higher yields are a sign of confidence rather than a hindrance to the economic recovery. The Fed’s days of preemptively tightening monetary policy based on forecasts are over; no matter how robust the outlook may be, the path of policy will depend on realized results. This past week, the Fed held its March FOMC meeting. They indicated their desire to keep rates low and policy accommodative. Markets are anxious about interest rate effects on the economy. Hence, the tug of war between the market and the Fed appears likely to intensify. Investors should expect further volatile weeks over the coming months. It is refreshing in some ways, however, that the Fed is comfortable sitting back and letting the market sort itself and find its equilibrium; it has been a while.

We continue to believe that rates are rising for the right reasons – better economic growth expectations. Markets are pricing in the first Fed rate hike in early 2023. With strong growth and above-target inflation likely to prevail for the remainder of 2021, the Fed will have its work cut out to persuade markets that no change should be expected for the next couple of years. During his recent press conference, Powell reasserted that “the economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved,” and confirmed that the Fed “will continue to provide the economy the support that it needs for as long as it takes.” If markets are to take Chair Powell’s statements at face value regarding “actual progress, not forecast progress,” we believe the employment trend over the next few quarters will be crucial in determining when the debate on tapering begins. At this point, we expect markets will need to see it, to believe it. Game on!

This week, the focus will be on inflation, new and existing home sales, durable goods, and scheduled remarks from several Fed voting members. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell will testify on the fiscal and monetary policy response to the pandemic. Still, their comments are not expected to be market-moving.

Data deck for March 20–March 26:

WA chart 3.22.21

 

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Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
About the Author
Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Mr. Jones is a senior member of the First Foundation Advisors investment management team and is responsible for working closely with First Foundation’s financial advisors to develop investment strategies utilizing income assets to help clients achieve their financial goals. In his role, Mr. Jones serves on the company’s Investment and Asset Allocation committees and is responsible for leading and overseeing the firm’s fixed income assets. Mr. Jones joined First Foundation Advisors in 2011. His previous experience at ProShare Advisors included trading and analysis in global equity and derivatives markets for the world’s largest manager of leveraged and inverse funds. Mr. Jones earned a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the University of Pittsburgh and a Master of Science in Mathematical Finance degree from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. He is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Los Angeles. Read more