INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

A First Foundation Blog

The Week Ahead – Staying Focused on the Recovery

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week. 

For a change, the S&P 500 did not have the best of weeks. Equity markets were battered as a relentless backup in long-term interest rates weighed on valuations. The S&P 500 slipped 2.4% but suffered deeper declines of more than 4% in some of the market's higher growth areas. Still, the S&P 500 is 3% higher than where it was at the start of this year, and we believe that is the most appropriate perspective.

As to why yields are rising, we believe it reflects a gradual healing of the economy, rising inflation expectations, and so-called bond vigilantes' return. It has long been our view that long-term interest rates should increase as the economy recovers and eventually return to pre-pandemic levels. It merely appears to us that the U.S. bond market has awakened fully to policymakers' extraordinary attempt to overheat the U.S. economy in 2021.

Higher bond yields often strike fear into equity investors, especially now with markets juiced by ultra-low rates. However, it's essential to keep in mind why rates are rising, as we do not believe this to be a second taper tantrum episode. The current episode is characterized by increasing long-term yields in anticipation of a broader economic recovery and gradually rising inflation expectations. In this sense, the recent selloff in long-term interest rates is more like the "inflation scare" episodes of the 1980s, where bond markets were worried about easy monetary policy creating excessive economic growth and inflation.

In our view, the reopening of economies seems increasingly imminent, and the Fed's message remains quite clear. Recent vaccine data from Israel, where the rollout is most advanced, suggests vaccination lowers the transmission rate of COVID-19, fueling additional optimism for a faster, broader easing of restrictions. Additionally, in Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony to Congress, it was reiterated that the Fed does not plan to change anything in the short run and that inflation fears may be overdone. The Fed thinks it will take years for inflation to reach 2.0% on a sustainable basis, even after considering the big fiscal package to be introduced by the government. In short, the Federal Reserve will continue to sit on the sidelines, allowing the yield curve to steepen. Historically, the combination of an economic recovery, rising rates, and a steepening yield curve have been positive for equities. We expect that to continue.

This week, the most significant piece of news will be February's non-farm payrolls. Friday's report is expected to signal a return of job growth, following a soft patch in the last few months. It will be the first data in several months that will not be affected by either one-off's or by seasonal factors. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to give speeches this week, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell discussing the U.S. economy on Thursday.

Data deck for February 27–March 5:

WA chart 3.1.21

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION    

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. Please remember that if you are a First Foundation client, it remains your responsibility to advise First Foundation, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request, or at firstfoundationinc.com.  Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
About the Author
Calvin Jones, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Mr. Jones is a senior member of the First Foundation Advisors investment management team and is responsible for working closely with First Foundation’s financial advisors to develop investment strategies utilizing income assets to help clients achieve their financial goals. In his role, Mr. Jones serves on the company’s Investment and Asset Allocation committees and is responsible for leading and overseeing the firm’s fixed income assets. Mr. Jones joined First Foundation Advisors in 2011. His previous experience at ProShare Advisors included trading and analysis in global equity and derivatives markets for the world’s largest manager of leveraged and inverse funds. Mr. Jones earned a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the University of Pittsburgh and a Master of Science in Mathematical Finance degree from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. He is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Los Angeles. Read more