INSIGHTS FROM FIRST FOUNDATION

A First Foundation Blog

The Week Ahead – Surf’s Up

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

While reading this latest blog entry, please tune your Apple Music, Amazon Music, YouTube Red, Spotify, Pandora, Tidal, Soundcloud, retro LP, 8-track, cassette tape, or CD to The Ventures – Hawaii 5-0.

Recent data by Dow Jones Market Data shows that the S&P 500 index has closed either 1% below its intraday high or 1% above its intraday low 76 times already in 2018! Flashbacks of 2008-2009! Looking back at 2017, the year of upward only markets, that kind of volatility was seen a total of six times. Back in 2015 the number of instances was 82! 2015 was also the most recent time where both U.S. equity and U.S. bonds both returned less than 4% (+1.38% for U.S. equities and +0.55% for U.S. bonds), something that has only occurred five times over the last seventy years (1953, 1969, 1977, 1994, and 2015). After Friday’s market close, both domestic equities and bonds are in the red year-to-date. That has only occurred once over the last seventy years, when 1969 saw a -7.16% return for U.S. equities and a -0.74% return for U.S. bonds. With two weeks left we’ll see if 2018 will look more like 1969 or 2015. (Ironically, if you’re listening to the recommended playlist from above, The Ventures Hawaii 5-0 instrumental album hit #11 on the Billboard Top LP charts … in 1969.) 

The week ahead will be packed with an updated third quarter GDP reading, Core PCE, home sales, and the much anticipated FOMC meeting. Currently the market is pricing in a 75% chance of a rate hike next week, down from 84% at the start of the month. Expect further dovish comments from the Fed as they look to soothe fears of being overly aggressive on rate hikes in 2019. We could see the median dot plot shift down to two hikes in 2019 and one in 2020. As big data has evolved, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has just released prototype statistics for GDP by county, check out the visual here. That’s 3,133 counties and going forward it should help economists and investors better understand which regions are growing or contracting. The smallest county by GDP in 2015 was Loving County, TX with $4.6 million in Real GDP, while the largest was our very own Los Angeles County coming in at $656 billion.

Data deck for December 15-December 21:

Date

Indicator

Period

December 17

Empire Manufacturing Index

December

December 17

NAHB Housing Market Index

December

December 18

Housing Starts / Building Permits

November

December 19

Current Account Balance

3Q18

December 19

Existing Home Sales

November

December 19

FOMC Rate Decision

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December 20

Initial Jobless Claims

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December 20

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

December

December 21

Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary)

November

December 21

U.S. GDP

3Q18

December 21

Core PCE

3Q18

December 21

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

December

December 21

Personal Income

November

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION    

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by First Foundation Advisors), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from First Foundation Advisors. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. First Foundation Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the First Foundation Advisors’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. Please Note: First Foundation Advisors does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to First Foundation Advisors’ web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
About the Author
Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more