The Week Ahead – The Year Ahead

Every week, we have been writing about what to expect in the markets in each coming day. While this week is no different, we did want to take this first week of the new year to pause and look further out.

Last year served as a kind of counterweight to 2017. As jubilant and unprecedented as 2017 was, 2018 initially brought new highs, such as record highs in late September for domestic equity markets, but ultimately ended with much angst and the worst annual return for domestic equity markets since 2008. A China slowdown scare, the reintroduction of volatility, global growth fears, worries about overly aggressive Fed policy, inverting yield curves, midterm elections, BREXIT, and trade wars were all part of the headlines for 2018.

While the calendar year has turned, not much clarity has been provided to answer investors’ main question from late 2018: Are we in a regular correction, a full-blown bear market, or about to enter a recession? Each of the aforementioned global macro fears will slowly become clarified, one way or another, in 2019. The market dislikes uncertainty which is muddying global growth expectations (i.e., will the US-China trade war turn into a new Cold War?). A slower growing economy – the most likely outcome if a trade truce is negotiated – is very different from a contracting economy, which is a more likely outcome if a Cold War begins. Our base case scenario for 2019 is the former, though we remain vigilant about the possibility of the latter.

Data deck for 2019:

Date	Country / Region	Event
January 1	Brazil	President-elect Jair Bolsonaro to be sworn in
January 3	United States	The 116^th Congress will be sworn in
January 14	United Kingdom	Parliament will vote on the Withdrawal Agreement
January 23	Japan	Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting
January 24	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
January 29-30	United States	FOMC Meeting
February 7	United Kingdom	Bank of England meeting
February 16	Nigeria	Presidential and General Elections
February 17	United States	Commerce Department deadline for report on potential auto tariffs
February 24	Thailand	General Elections
March 1	China	The National People’s Congress meets
March 1	USA/ China	Trade truce negotiated by Presidents Trump and Xi expires
March 2	United States	Federal debt ceiling reinstated
March 7	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
March 19-20	United States	FOMC Meeting
March 29	United Kingdom	BREXIT Day scheduled
March 31	Ukraine	Presidential Elections
April	OPEC	OPEC meeting to review production
April 11	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
April 12-14	IMF	Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group
April 14	India	General Elections
April 14	Finland	General Elections
April 17	Indonesia	Presidential and General Elections
April 25	Japan	Nationwide & Local Elections
April 25	Japan	Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting
April 30	Japan	Emperor Akihito will relinquish the throne to his eldest son, Crown Prince Naruhito
April 30 – May 1	United States	FOMC Meeting
May	South Africa	General Elections
May 2	United Kingdom	Local Elections
May 2	United Kingdom	Bank of England meeting
May 13	Philippines	General Elections
May 18	Australia	Senate Elections
May 23-26	European Union	European Parliamentary Elections
May 25	Belgium	Federal Elections
May 26	Germany	Regional Elections
May 26	Spain	Local and Regional Elections
June 6	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
June 8-9	G-20	G-20 Trade, Finance, and Central Bank Ministerial Meetings
June 18-19	United States	FOMC Meeting
June 17	Denmark	General Elections
June 28-29	G-20	G-20 Summit
July	Japan	House of Councilors Election
July 2	European Union	First meeting of the new European Parliament
July 25	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
July 30	Japan	Bank of Japan meeting
July 30-31	United States	FOMC Meeting
August	United States	Federal debt ceiling potentially reached if limit not yet raised
August 1	United Kingdom	Bank of England meeting
August 25	G-7	G-7 Meeting
September 12	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
September 17	United Nations	UN General Assembly meeting
September 17	United States	FOMC Meeting
October	Ukraine	Parliamentary Elections
October 6	Portugal	General Elections
October 18-20	IMF	International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group meetings
October 20	Greece	General Elections
October 20	Switzerland	National and Federal Council Elections
October 21	Canada	Federal Elections
October 24	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting (and President Draghi’s last meeting)
October 27	Argentina	Presidential Elections
October 29-30	United States	FOMC Meeting
October 31	Japan	Bank of Japan meeting
November 1	European Union	New European Commission President and Commissioners take office
November 5	United States	Gubernatorial Elections in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana
November 5	Israel	General Elections
November 7	United Kingdom	Bank of England meeting
November 19	Poland	General Elections
December	OPEC	OPEC meeting
December 10-11	United States	FOMC meeting
December 12	European Union	European Central Bank Governing Council meeting
December 19	Romania	Presidential Elections

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