7 minute read

“Peace is the virtue of civilization. War is its crime.” – Victor Hugo            

Red Dawn

Just before daybreak on February 24, Russia launched a military offensive against Ukraine, which the latter described as a “full-scale invasion.” In such times, fundamentals cede their place to the dynamics of risk management across global markets and to investor psychology. Media headlines will dominate, emotions will arise, and staying focused on long-term investing will be difficult. 

The U.S. and its European NATO allies have unanimously condemned Russia’s actions, while China called for restraint on all sides. Upon the news hitting all media outlets, Asian stocks were down ~2%, European equities plunged by 4%-5% in early trading, and the Moscow exchange went in and out of trading halts with a 30%-50% decline in valuations.

Uncertainty breeds discomfort, and a significant share of market participants worldwide will be acting to de-risk their portfolios by selling or hedging today. However, the costs of doing so can be high: the price for insurance tends to spike during crises, and along with it the frictions encountered even when executing in the most liquid of instruments rises in tandem. On most days, the most-traded security in the world is an ETF tracking the S&P 500; its on-screen bid-ask spreads tend to rise and fall near-proportionally with VIX – as illustrated below. In other words, if you feel you must trade today, it may be wise to trade carefully. 

At times like this, one often hears reference to the remark, originally attributed to Nathan Rothschild, that one should “buy when there is blood on the streets.”  Over the 32 years since the VIX began publication, it is true that, in the 30 days subsequent to a high VIX, the S&P 500 has on average delivered a higher return than in other periods. But the range of outcomes was also much wider, with a much fatter “left tail.” Those fortunate enough to be less concerned with the risk of a short, sharp loss in the short term, however, are provided with an opportunity to offer liquidity to those with the need or inclination to sell.  

What we were planning to talk about

Prior to the attack by Russia on February 24, we were working on a piece addressing the following:

• How the markets are off their recent highs
• The geo political crisis with Russia / Ukraine (as it was mostly posturing up to this point)
• Tech stocks and the related rotation away from tech
• Probability of a recession in 2022, 2023, and/or beyond

There was a lot to share, no doubt. Now with a military operation in full effect on European soil, we will turn our attention to what impact that might have on our investments. But before we do, it is important to catalogue where we stand with respect to key economic data. This is as of February 24 unless otherwise noted.

• The 2-year UST yield is at: 1.48%, down from 1.58%
• The 10-year UST yield at: 1.85%, down from 1.99%
• The VIX is 38, up from 28
• Oil is close to $100 per barrel 

Prior to the launch of the attack, the VIX index was not elevated. The current reading of 37 was last seen in late January of this year and then October of 2020. Markets are pricing in additional volatility over the next 30-days. 

At market close on February 23, the S&P 500 had breached correction territory, a 10% move down from recent highs set at the early start of the year. This was a significant event but let’s have some perspective. Since 1942-2022, the data shows:

• A 5+% decline occurs about 3x a year / average length of that decline is 40 days / last occurrence was January 2022
• A 10+% decline occurs about every 16 months / average length of that decline is 132 days / last occurrence was February 2022
• A 15+% decline occurs about every 3.5 years / average length 240 days / last occurred March 2020
• A 20+% decline occurs about every 5.5 years / average length is 339 days / last occurrence March 2020 

While the events occurring in Europe are a travesty, economically the U.S. is relatively sheltered, with Russia and Ukraine combining for less than 1% of US imports and exports. The U.S. is a net exporter of natural gas while Russia supplies Europe with about 35-40% of its natural gas via pipeline. This of course is why we have seen gas and natural gas prices spike as Russia is a major oil producer. 

We can also take a moment to look at European equity markets and past macro events that have impacted the market: 

Now we must ask: What will the Fed do? Market participants have pulled down expectations of a 50bps rate hike at March’s FOMC meeting. If you look at the chart below, you can see expectations of a 50bps rate hike have gone from 33.7% to 13.3% in just 24 hours.

The Fed is also well aware of geopolitical risk and a review of the transcripts from past FOMC meetings where geopolitical risks loomed large shows that Fed officials have focused in particular on the downside risks to the economy from higher energy prices and reduced consumer and business confidence. Historically the Fed has delayed major policy decisions until uncertainty surrounding geopolitical risks are diminished: Kosovo war, US/Iraq, and Arab Spring. They also cut rates modestly after 9/11 and the US/China trade war. The Fed’s Geopolitical Risk Index is back to levels to US/Iran tensions which occurred in early 2020.

Looking further at market corrections

• Over the past 50 years, there have been 19 market corrections and 8 bear markets.*Bear markets are more severe sell-offs where the peak to trough decline exceeds 20%. 
• The good news is that most market corrections last for only several months. The pullback averages about 4 months from peak to trough with average declines of ~14%.
• The recovery from market corrections (i.e., time it takes to return to the previous peak) is relatively short, usually reversing losses in about 5 months. 
• There is considerable variability in the data, however. Seven of the corrections declined peak to trough in less than 2 months and the average recovery time in those instances was just 3 months. These are what we might call the “whiplash corrections.” These corrections emphasize how costly it can be to be out of the market even for a few weeks or months at risk of missing the subsequent rapid rebound. 
• Bear markets are considerably more severe and leave a longer lasting impact on the market. Fortunately, they’re less frequent. 
• The average decline realized during the 8 bear markets since the late-1960s is ~38%. The slide downward plays out over an average of 14 months. Worst still, the average recovery time is a frustratingly long 29 months (almost two and a half years). 
• It is intuitive that a bear market takes a long time to dig out of as they’re usually tied to major structural issues/imbalances (extreme market excesses, etc.) built up over many years. It simply takes more time to regain economic momentum and climb out from a materially deeper hole. By comparison, market corrections are more typically tied to temporary factors that rattle markets but can be overcome/resolved in relatively short-order. 
• The most recent correction prior to the pandemic was in late 2018, which was spurred by US trade tensions with China, slowing global growth, and concerns that the Fed was hiking rates too quickly. It’s also notable because it was very nearly a technical “bear market” with the decline hitting 19.8%. The recovery took about 7 months, which is considerably shorter than the average recovery from a bear market. Remember that most bear markets notch losses well in excess of 20%. 
• We also looked at the start of Fed Funds rate hiking cycles, and in the majority of corrections the market drop was preceded by or occurred in the midst of a rate hiking cycle. Take this with a grain of salt, however, since the relationship between the Fed Funds rate, the economy/business cycle, and the equity market is complex and different across corrections. 
• Lastly, although there were 6 market corrections in the 2010s, the S&P 500 nevertheless collected a total return of 256% over the decade. 

Market correction … or bear market? In the below charts, the date (e.g., “Jun 69”) represents the month and year the market first declined by 10% from the recent peak. In other words when the market entered correction. This date is equal to 1 on the X-axis and is indexed to 100 for comparison purposes. For example, the most recent market correction occurred on 23 November 2018, “Nov 18,” (after peaking on 20 September 2018). The blue line charts the path of the S&P 500 from 23 November 2018 over the course of the next year (~250 trading days). Interestingly, this market correction nearly became a bear market, falling by 19.78% by Christmas Eve 2018. However, that proved to be the trough of this correction, and the market was up strongly over 2019.

Conclusion 

So, as far as the events unfolding in Russia and Ukraine, there is no doubt it will be in the headlines for the foreseeable future. But we need to remember there was a lot that we were talking about before February 24. Building all-weather portfolios is what we have done for our clients for over 30 years, and while macro events at this scale test everyone’s patience, we need to remain focused on a long-term investment horizon. Our investment philosophy and process do not change. We will continue to seek opportunities to accumulate assets that are favorably priced and we will take steps to shed assets that do not have a favorable outlook. And, in fact, it is times like these that actually accentuate the buy and sell signals. But our process to help you accomplish your financial goals does not change. We will no doubt have more to say in coming days and weeks, and we will continue to keep you updated. In the meantime, thank you for your continued trust in us.