The Week Ahead – The Line in the Sand

Investments & Economy The Week Ahead Grow

The Week Ahead – The Line in the Sand

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer

| 4/30/18 7:50 AM

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Welcome to “The Week Ahead” where we take a moment to provide our thoughts on what we can expect in markets and the economy during the upcoming week.

Just last August, the headline risk was potential nuclear war with North Korea. Well, this past week we saw history made as North Korea leader Kim Jong Un became the first North Korean leader ever to cross the DMZ (also known as the most heavily armed border in the world) to visit South Korea… and then pledging with South Korean President Moon Jae-In to formally end the Korean War by the end of 2018. The Korean War first broke out in 1950 and, while there was an armistice signed in 1953, no official peace treaty has ever been signed. To start bringing the two Koreas together, North Korea will shift its time zone 30 minutes forward to align with South Korea starting May 5^th. Random tidbit of 1950’s history, the S&P 500 as we know it today began in 1957. Prior to that it was known as the S&P 90. Back in 1957, the 500 stocks within the S&P 500 represented 90% of the total market value of the entire U.S. stock market.

If you haven’t had a chance to read my colleague Louis Abel’s most recent quarterly piece, please do so here.

Plenty of data points to be reviewed by investors in the week ahead. The market is currently only pricing in a 6% chance of the Fed hiking at next week’s FOMC meeting, especially given that no press conference or economic update is currently scheduled following their rate decision. We’ll close the week with Friday’s employment report. Expect wage growth to continue to trend upward and for the unemployment rate to stay steady at 4.1% or even possible decrease to 4%.

Data deck for April 28 – May 4:

Date	Indicator	Period
April 30	Personal Income – PCE Core Prices	March
April 30	Chicago Purchasing Managers	April
April 30	Pending Home Sales	March
May 1	ISM Manufacturing	April
May 1	Vehicle Sales	April
April 2	ADP Employment	April
April 2	FOMC Rate Decision	May
April 3	Initial Jobless Claims	----
April 3	Trade Balance	March
April 3	Nonfarm Productivity (Preliminary)	April
April 4	Employment Report	April

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Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer

About the Author

Andrew Chan, CAIA, Co-Chief Investment Officer

Mr. Chan co-leads the strategic investment committee and is responsible for overseeing First Foundation Advisor’s investment solutions platform which includes conducting investment manager research for both traditional and alternative investments as well as asset allocation guidance for portfolio construction. As a member of the investment committee, he provides market commentary and investment insights to clients. Additionally, Mr. Chan serves as a senior executive on the business strategy committee providing guidance on firm wide initiatives. With over 15 years of wealth management experience, Mr. Chan has played key roles across various aspects of investment and wealth management. Prior to joining First Foundation Advisors, Mr. Chan was most recently a portfolio manager at U.S. Trust where, in addition to his daily responsibilities, he served on numerous national committees including the investment manager committee, the portfolio model committee, and the strategic technology committee. He also served on the in-house strategic consultant committee reporting directly to the President of U.S. Trust. Mr. Chan is a graduate of the Wharton School Executive Program on Investment Management and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from the University of California, Riverside. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Mr. Chan has previously served as an exam working group member and as an exam grader for CAIA. A member of the CAIA SoCal Executive Board since 2015, Mr. Chan has served as executive chapter head since 2017. Read more