Friday Focus – Jan 16, 2026

4 minute read

Smart insight and clear visuals that matter – what we’re watching now and how intention and conviction shape our portfolios.

Markets

Earnings Estimates

According to FactSet, 2026 still shows signs of strong earnings:

S&P 500 earnings growth estimates for Q4 2025 are 8%, but from here the consensus estimates rise to 13-18% growth per quarter over 2026.

Technology earnings are a massive contributor to S&P 500 in the year ahead.
Their consensus is that technology companies are going to be able to grow earnings 28% in 2026 on top of the nearly 25% earnings growth in 2025.
Materials are also forecasted to have strong earnings growth, but the sector’s relevance is much less as it is only 2% of the S&P 500.

FactSet sees productivity as a key driver of earnings strength in 2026 with margin management key to success.

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The "Blockbuster" IPO Cycle

For 2026, S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth are significantly higher than the long-term average, driven by a "dual engine" of AI-driven productivity and fiscal benefits from the One Big Beautiful Act.

Additionally, there are talks of multi-billion-dollar IPOs for SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, companies all at the front of the Public’s Consciousness, raising hopes of windfall for banks, lawyers and investors. In fact, hundreds of companies, including an estimated 800+ unicorns, that were ready to list in Q4 2025 are now flooding the Q1 and Q2 2026 calendars.

If corporate earnings remain strong, the "appetite for risk" will remain high; however, any disappointment in S&P 500 earnings growth could cause these high-valuation IPOs to "price down" or delay their debuts.

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Technology

Artificial Intelligence

It has been said that just as AI may be inflationary in the physical world (basic materials, construction, power), it is deflationary in the digital world. While the former is evidenced by stocks in energy and raw materials performing well this year; software is a prime example of the market’s growing awareness of the latter. Understanding this distinction helps explain why many high‑quality software names are down 20–50% even as AI investment booms. AI enables a single worker to produce exponentially more output, compressing the price of digital services and potentially disrupting current solutions and undercutting incumbents.

A tough year for software stocks 2025: Fortinet: -17%; Workday: -21%; Salesforce: -26%; Adobe: -26%; Constellation Software: -29%; Docusign: -31%; ServiceNow: -35%; Monday: -41%; Atlassian: -46%; Hubspot: -51%.

Housing

One part of our economy that has been dormant for some time has been housing. The first good housing news we have seen in many quarters, according to Freddie Mac, is that mortgage rates are starting to come down. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.06% (week ending January 15) but broke into the 5s, according to Cohen & Steers.

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The last time home borrowing rates were this low was September 2022. Lower rates have already driven a noticeable uptick in weekly purchase applications and refinances have jumped according to Freddie. This is not only lower interest rates but also the executive directive 6 days ago to have Fannie and Freddie spend $200bn buying mortgage bonds which has narrowed the mortgage spread. Mortgage rates are likely to be headed lower as market-implied odds for the Fed cutting rates at the next four FOMC meetings show:

January 28: 5%
March 18: 25%
April 28: 45%
June 17: 95%

Apartment Rent Report 2025

We continue to see strong rental growth in coastal California and the Midwest.

The rental growth in the sun belt areas has been challenged from oversupply, but reduction in new builds should help stabilize over time.
Population growth remains strong in many counties, but there continues to be uncertainty regarding when supply and demand will stabilize.
Within Houston we are seeing apartment demand subdue which may be resulting in more transactions. It is likely to be occurring across various regions.
Interesting to see a similar growth story in home price growth as well (excluding San Antonio).

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International Developed Equities

International outperformance often aligns with dollar weakness. Favorable exchange rates and increased investment flows support international returns when the dollar falls. The recent strong dollar cycle favors U.S. equities, but current dollar weakness and cheaper international valuations suggest a possible shift ahead.

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Source: FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of December 31, 2025

Economic Calendar: Week Ahead (Eastern Time)

Mon, 1/19: U.S. Markets Closed, Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

Wed, 1/21 @ 10 am: Pending Home Sales

Thurs, 1/22 @ 830am: Initial Jobless Claims
@ 830am: GDP (First Revision)

Fri, 1/23 @ 10am: Consumer Sentiment (Final)

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